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Physics-Based Supercomputer Simulations of
Wildfire Behavior
Michael M. Bradley
Lawrence Livermore National Lab
Lawrence Livermore (LLNL) and Los Alamos (LANL) National Laboratories have been
working together for several years to develop a fully physics-based supercomputer modeling
system that will accurately predict the behavior of wildfires. Our primary goal is to protect lives,
property, and natural resources. The emerging capability simulates not only wildfire behavior,
but also the local weather and its decisive two-way interactions with the fire. In addition, the
modeling system properly accounts for the effects of complex terrain on both the weather and the
fire behavior. A geographic information system (GIS) interface is being employed to efficiently
process model input data (for example, fuel and terrain information) and to analyze the human
and economic consequences of the models' predictions. The fire simulations also can be
analyzed and presented using three-dimensional animated video sequences of fire progression.
Existing operational capabilities at LLNL already can predict smoke dispersion and its impact on
human health. Because it is fully physics-based, the modeling system can accurately simulate
fire behavior for a much wider range of geographical locations and weather conditions than is
possible with the conventional, empirically-based models currently in use by fire management
agencies. The new system could provide an unprecedented level of intelligence to fire managers,
enabling them to more safely and efficiently utilize their limited firefighting resources. We
believe that it will even be possible to simulate various firefighting techniques, and eventually to
use multiple simulations of specific fires to help fire managers choose the safest and most
effective firefighting strategies. The project leverages upon unique, existing resources at the two
national laboratories, including advanced research programs, the proven emergency response
infrastructure of LLNL's National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), and some
of the world's most powerful computers. The new modeling system has been used to reconstruct
the behavior of several historical fires, and the accuracy of these simulations has been confirmed
by on-scene firefighters. Most recently, the LLNL Team has used the system to simulate the
early stages of the tragic 1991 East Bay Hills fire.
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