An observational and numerical modeling
analysis of the July-August episode of
the Central California Ozone Study (CCOS)*


Kemal Gurer
California Air Resources Board



During the summer of 2000, emissions, meteorological, and air quality data were collected using a network of surface and upper air instruments to study the atmospheric conditions leading to elevated ozone concentrations in Central California. Of the three ozone episodes captured during this field study, the episode that took place between July 29 and August 4 was chosen to study in detail using the MM5 numerical model. The MM5 was initialized using archived NCEP analysis data and observational nudging using the data collected during the CCOS, separately, to create a 3-D structure of the atmosphere in time. Aside from plotting 2-D horizontal and vertical cross sections of common meteorological variables, the modeled wind and temperatures were also compared at each station against corresponding hourly observations to evaluate the spatial and temporal model performance. Overall analysis procedure has allowed the identification of various errors and/or trends in observational and modeled data. Examples of such identifications are a) observation data that are inconsistent with the characterization of a region, b) previously unknown local- scale features of the atmosphere within certain parts of the CCOS domain, and c) various errors/deficiencies associated with several modules of the model.

During this seminar, we will share the lessons learned during the modeling of July-August episode. We will also discuss the need for additional post-modeling quality assurance of observational data, and the effects of various initialization parameters on simulated meteorology for this episode.



*The web site for CCOS is http://www.arb.ca.gov/airways/ccos/ccos.htm